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Hank Kershell

Living in northern California, a Nascar fan since 1978. A big fan of Bobby+Davey Allison, Dale Earnhardt and now Kyle Busch. I am Hank from California, a regular caller on both Tradin' Paint, and Sirius Speedway on Sirius NASCAR, Channel 128.

My 2010 Chase Predictions

1. Jimmie Johnson

The 4 time defending champ looks to make it 5 in a row, and as long as Chad Knaus doesn't get lost on the way to the track, it seems a near certainty. His 24 wins the last 3 seasons are 11 more than the next best Kyle Busch with 13.

Strengths: wins a lot, can win on any kind of track, consistency, the best crew chief, the smartest driver I have ever seen, never makes mistakes.

Weaknesses: other than being too robotic in some of his interviews, I don't see any, let me and the rest of the garage know if you find any.

2. Kyle Busch

Coming off an inconsistent Cup effort that netted 4 wins in 2010. The defending Nationwide champion, age 24 has 62 wins in NASCAR's top three series, and scaling back from a full-time effort in the Nationwide car, should allow Rowdy to focus more this season.

Strengths: wins a lot, can win on any kind of track, awesome pit crew, aggressive and as much natural ability as anyone on the planet.

Weaknesses: sometimes overly aggressive, can lack consistency, and can lose his cool and can get surly when things go bad.

3. Tony Stewart

Smoke who took over the bottom dwelling Haas/CNC racing, transforming it into Stewart-Hass Racing, winning 4 times plus the All-Star race and was the points leader after 26 races. There is nothing to suggest Stewart won't have an equally strong 2010, not as sure about teammate Newman.

Strengths: wins a lot, can win on any kind of track, as good as anyone in the sport in really hot track conditions, and like Busch as talented as any driver on the planet.

Weaknesses: can lose his temper on track, and will tear up fenders without thinking it through, physical conditioning, seemed to fade at the end of the season.

4. Jeff Gordon

Jeff Gordon's fatal career move was hiring Jimmie Johnson, who has taken wins and championships away from his teammate, and has really put the brakes on Gordon's legacy, who 7 or 8 years ago it was assumed he would get at least 7 championships, and 100 victories, now that seems a long shot best, and Johnson looks like the one to achieve those accomplishments. Has become very consistent, but with only 1 race win in the last 2 seasons, one can only wonder if Jeff can finish the deal anymore.

Strengths: consistency, Hendrick equipment, and veteran experience.

Weaknesses: very few trips to victory lane anymore, cannot beat the 48.

Jeff Gordon driver of the #24 DuPont/National Guard Youth Challenge climbs into his car during practice for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Kobalt Tools 500 at the Atlanta Motor Speedway on March 6, 2009 in Hampton, Georgia. (Photo by John Harrelson/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Jeff Gordon

5. Mark Martin

Mark Martin came out of NASCAR Siberia to win 5 races last season, and solidify his Hall of Fame credentials, pushing his career win total to 40. Martin bolstered by crew chief's superior abilities, Martin showed up nearly every week at the track as the fastest, or at worst one of the top 5 fastest cars. That kind of raw speed allowed Martin to overcome several bad breaks in the early part of 2009, to be able to make the chase, then was consistent enough in the last 10, to finish a distant second to Johnson.

Strengths: super smart, really fast, great crew chief.

Weaknesses: the most unlucky driver in NASCAR history, never seems to get the breaks, and always seems to get the short end of things, and Talladega, unfortunately for Mark, it is in the chase.

THE BEST OF THE REST:

6. Denny Hamlin

7. Carl Edwards

8. Kevin Harvick

9. Matt Kenseth

10. Clint Bowyer

11. Jeff Burton

12. Dale Earnhardt Jr

I know I will catch flack, but until someone derails the Hendrick Motorsports train, I have to keep picking them. But in my heart I am hoping someone does.

» Discuss This Story

Hank, I agree with your predictions with the exception of Kevin Harvick and Dale Jr. I just don't see Harvick improving that much over the off season. As for Dale Jr., the ban on testing is just killing their efforts to improve.

Pitroad Speedtrap (Posted Jan 24, 2010 6:56:03 PM)
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I think that RCR really got their act together at the end of last year, and they never have parts failures, very consistent, make them hard to keep out when they run well. As for Dale Jr, I think it is win at least 2 races, and make the chase, or heads will roll at HMS, Dale Jr has to matter, both Rick Hendrick and Dale Jr were humiliated at his 25th place in the final standing last year.

Hank (Posted Jan 25, 2010 10:27:53 AM)
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Have a hard time not seeing Biff in there, if Roush gets it together, him & cane will top off 4 Fords in the chase with your picks of Edwards & Kenseth. Also, throw in Truex as long shot. Who will be out? Stewart, Jr, & Harvick.

derek up north (Posted Jan 25, 2010 1:56:20 PM)
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Random thoughts....

Jimmie Johnson will NOT repeat and will not make it five in a row.

Dale Earnhardt Jr will be in the 2010 Chase. Rick Hendrick has seen the light and error of his ways. Dale Jr is his meal ticket when it comes to sponsorship dollars.

Don't see where Jack Roush has done much to fix his operation, let alone his sister company, Richard Petty Motorsports.

Kyle Busch will make the Chase in 2010. He has matured and is driven to win.

Ryan Newman out, good guy, but unlucky at times.

Sadly, Kevin Harvick will be a lame duck driver at RCR in preparation for his move to Stewart-Haas Racing in 2011. It will be a long 2010 for him in Sprint Cup. He will have to find his "Happy Harvick-ness in the Nationwide Series and Camping World Truck Series.

Jeff Burton could rebound and lead the way at RCR.

Pat Tryson was the secret to Kurt Busch and his success at Penske. Scratch him off the 2010 Chase list.

Jeff (Posted Jan 25, 2010 2:17:11 PM)
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this is the hardest year I have had coming up with the chase driver since the chase started in 2004. I had to leave off Juan Pablo Montoya, Greg Biffle, Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers, Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman, plus guys like Marcos Ambrose, Joey Logano and David Reutimann who good cases could be made for. If Harvick doesn't make it and win races before Charlotte he will definitely be gone to Stewart-Hass, otherwise Kasey Kahne will be the third car if Harvick stays at RCR. Assuming Harvick doesn't start winning again, and goes to Stewart Hass, I believe Kasey Kahne will become the fourth car at JGR. He has the same agent as Hamlin and Busch, and is way too talented to have to drive mediocre stuff.

Hank (Posted Jan 25, 2010 4:51:35 PM)
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I think you are spot on "but" Dale Jr. is not ready to commit
to the sport yet, too many distractions and not enough focus
on conditioning.

Dave (Posted Jan 25, 2010 5:34:15 PM)
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I think the 88 will make the chase in spite of Dale Jr's lack of commitment, I just think it is now or never for Dale Jr at HMS, and he is commiting massive resources to help out Junior, a lot more than any of the other 3 teams, I don't think they will actually do anything once they make the chase. I am not sure I want to listen to Sirius NASCAR radio if Junior goes winless and doesn't make the chase this year, it will be one ugly off season, Junior Nation will be 10 times more irate than this year.

Hank (Posted Jan 25, 2010 10:15:54 PM)
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Hank...I agree that Dale Jr. has to matter at HMS and I also agree that it is now or never for Dale Jr. at HMS. I just think the ban on testing will kill the 88 effort and I do think that at times, Dale Jr. gets distracted. But of course, one of us will be wrong...that's why we run the races.

I do respect your thoughts and candid discussion on the subject.

Your are correct about one thing...a bad season for the 88 will make Junior Nation 10 times more irate when they call into Sirius NASCAR radio.

Pitroad Speedtrap (Posted Jan 30, 2010 4:34:44 PM)
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Hank, you're out of your tree. The odds are going to catch up with Jimmy, and he will not win his fifth in a row. Mark Martin is the one to beat. Five wins with a new team and crew chief. He will be only better this year. Martin takes it all. My predictions: 1. Mark Martin, 2. Carl Edwards 3. Kyle Bush 4. Tony Stewart 5. Jeff Gordon 6. Jimmy Johnson 7.Matt Kinnseth 8. Denny Hamlin 9. Dale Jr. 10. Jeff Burton 11. Kevin Harvick & 12. Ryan Newman. Lets see who is closer at the end of the year. I'll hear you on the radio.

Steve (Posted Jan 31, 2010 1:06:29 PM)
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I would be the happiest racefan if Jimmie finished sixth, someone is going have to take it form them, but I am not sure what teams might actually have it in them to perform at that high of a level. I think Dale Jr would do a whole lot better if he ran some truck races for RCR, they could add a second car, maybe 15 or 16 races. So he can have some fun, Junior hasn't looked like he has been having fun since 2004, because he has forgotten that feeling he use to get when he would run the short track at Myrtle Beach. If he could get that passion and determination again, he will be very dangerous, he is definitely capable of being a top 5 driver.

Hank (Posted Jan 31, 2010 9:43:55 PM)
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1. Kahne, 2. 33 Bowyer, 3. Johnson, 4. Ky Busch, 5. Hamlin, 6. Stewart, 7. Biffle, 8. Edwards, 9. Jr, 10. Edwards, 11. Gordon, 12 Montoya. No, I am no a Kahne fan but I have a feeling

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